Field kit

The instruments

• Run the morning-after ledger

  Moody's counts $662 billion of data-centre lease commitments that aren't on a balance sheet yet. When they land, the correction deletes the spend that never became capability — and can't touch the work you actually redesigned.

• Map the judgement points

  Telecoms raised $1.6 trillion, went bust, and by 2004 bandwidth cost 90% less — the glut built the next web. The same arithmetic is running on AI right now, and the companies that map their judgment points before it clears will buy their advantage at the bottom.

• Run the rerun test

  BCG measured the last playbook: 70% of digital transformations fell short, and nobody wrote the closing report. Five questions, one sitting, ending in a word you can say in the meeting — including the one number here you should distrust.