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    "producedAt": "2026-08-26",
    "title": "A correction deletes AI spend, not redesigned work"
  },
  "claims": [
    {
      "id": "c1",
      "statement": "Moody's analysts counted about $662 billion of future data-centre lease commitments across Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft and Oracle, signed but not yet commenced and therefore off balance sheet.",
      "status": "sourced",
      "locator": {
        "section": "How big is the gap between the spending and the returns?"
      },
      "evidence": [
        "e9"
      ],
      "note": "Capture failed: the Yahoo Finance write-up returned navigation only. Figure retained from the earlier draft and labelled in Limitations. The earlier draft's 113% of adjusted debt and $969bn undiscounted total were cut."
    },
    {
      "id": "c2",
      "statement": "The Bank for International Settlements used its 2026 annual report to warn about an AI bubble bursting, debt-funded capital spending and contagion through private credit.",
      "status": "sourced",
      "locator": {
        "section": "How big is the gap between the spending and the returns?"
      },
      "evidence": [
        "e10",
        "e11"
      ],
      "note": "Capture failed: Fortune returned a CloudFront 403; bis.org returned a page shell of 82 prose words."
    },
    {
      "id": "c3",
      "statement": "MIT researchers analysed 300 public enterprise AI deployments and found 95% of pilots delivered no measurable profit-and-loss impact.",
      "status": "sourced",
      "locator": {
        "section": "How big is the gap between the spending and the returns?"
      },
      "evidence": [
        "e1"
      ],
      "note": "Secondary write-up of the MIT NANDA report, not the report itself. One origin."
    },
    {
      "id": "c4",
      "statement": "Amazon's shares fell from about $106 in 1999 to $6 in 2001, a drop of roughly 94%.",
      "status": "sourced",
      "locator": {
        "section": "A burst reprices companies, not work"
      },
      "evidence": [
        "e5"
      ],
      "note": "Source gives $106, not the $107 in the earlier draft; the article was corrected to match. The 94% is arithmetic on those two figures. The earlier draft's 'erased fourteen billion dollars of market value' was cut as ungrounded."
    },
    {
      "id": "c5",
      "statement": "Amazon's revenue kept growing straight through the dot-com crash.",
      "status": "sourced",
      "locator": {
        "section": "A burst reprices companies, not work"
      },
      "evidence": [
        "e12"
      ],
      "note": "The 2002 Form 10-K could not be retrieved (SEC refused the automated request); stockanalysis.com was tried as a substitute and its figures did not appear in the capture. The earlier draft's 'more than 140% from 1999 to 2002' was cut rather than left ungrounded."
    },
    {
      "id": "c6",
      "statement": "Pets.com failed in the dot-com crash with no redesigned operation underneath it.",
      "status": "recalled",
      "locator": {
        "section": "A burst reprices companies, not work"
      },
      "evidence": [],
      "note": "Widely reported business history; nothing retrieved this session."
    },
    {
      "id": "c7",
      "statement": "S&P Global Market Intelligence found 42% of organisations abandoned most of their AI initiatives, up from 17% a year earlier, and the average organisation scrapped 46% of proofs of concept before production, from a survey of more than 1,000 respondents in North America and Europe.",
      "status": "sourced",
      "locator": {
        "section": "The correction has already started inside budgets"
      },
      "evidence": [
        "e2",
        "e3"
      ],
      "note": "Trade-press write-up of S&P Global Market Intelligence research. One origin."
    },
    {
      "id": "c8",
      "statement": "Gartner predicts more than 40% of agentic AI projects will be cancelled by the end of 2027, from a poll of more than 3,400 organisations investing in the technology.",
      "status": "sourced",
      "locator": {
        "section": "The correction has already started inside budgets"
      },
      "evidence": [
        "e4"
      ],
      "note": "Trade-press write-up of a Gartner press release. The earlier draft's three cancellation reasons were cut because they were not in the capture."
    },
    {
      "id": "c9",
      "statement": "A market correction destroys spend that never became capability and leaves redesigned work almost untouched, because redesigned work does not trade.",
      "status": "inferred",
      "locator": {
        "section": "A burst reprices companies, not work"
      },
      "evidence": [
        "e5"
      ],
      "note": "Andrew's conclusion from the dot-com comparison. Not a finding."
    },
    {
      "id": "c10",
      "statement": "Every line of AI spend sorts into sand, scaffold or asset, and a sand ratio under a third, a third to two-thirds, or over two-thirds gives three different verdicts.",
      "status": "inferred",
      "locator": {
        "section": "Three columns for every line of AI spend"
      },
      "evidence": [],
      "note": "Andrew's own framework. The thresholds are judgement, not measurement."
    }
  ],
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      "quote": "The report, based on 52 executive interviews, surveys of 153 leaders, and analysis of 300 public AI deployments, found that 95% of pilots delivered no measurable P&L impact.",
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      "id": "e2",
      "url": "https://www.ciodive.com/news/AI-project-fail-data-SPGlobal/742590/",
      "quote": "The share of companies abandoning most of their AI initiatives jumped to 42% , up from 17% last year. The average organization scrapped 46% of AI proof-of-concepts before they reached production.",
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      "quote": "More than 40% of agentic AI projects will be canceled by the end of 2027. That is a prediction from Gartner published in June 2025 , based on a poll of more than 3,400 organizations actively investing in the technology.",
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      "quote": "",
      "locator": "capture returned a CloudFront 403 error page",
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    {
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      "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/moody-flags-662-billion-risk-081000616.html",
      "quote": "hyperscalers have accumulated $662 billion in future data center lease commitments not yet begun that are not current liabilities and therefore sit entirely off their balance sheets.",
      "locator": "para. 2",
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    {
      "id": "e10",
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      "quote": "The five largest hyperscalers are set to spend over a trillion US dollars on AI-related capital expenditure from 2025 through 2026. These commitments are outpacing earnings and the free cash flow of these firms, leading some to issue debt to raise additional financing",
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      "id": "e11",
      "url": "https://fortune.com/2026/06/29/bis-central-bank-warning-hyperscaler-data-center-1-trillion-gamble-recession/",
      "quote": "That logic, the BIS warns, is a recipe for collective overcommitment.",
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    },
    {
      "id": "e12",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000095014903000355/v87419ore10vk.htm",
      "quote": "3,932,936",
      "locator": "Item 6, Selected Consolidated Financial Data: net sales 2002 $3,932,936k; 1999 $1,639,839k",
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    }
  ],
  "disclosure": {
    "attribution": "Written by Andrew Ramsden. AI tools assisted research and drafting; all outputs verified.",
    "accountable": "Andrew Ramsden.",
    "limitations": "The MIT 95% is quoted from a legal-industry write-up of the report; the underlying base is 52 interviews and 153 survey responses. Moody's figure is quoted from Fortune's report of the analysis, not the Moody's note itself. Amazon's share prices come from a book-summary blog and are rounded.",
    "references": "Eight sources, retrieved and hashed on 26 and 27 August 2026, each figure quoted with a locator in the [SOURCED sidecar](/sourced/morning-after-ledger.sourced.json).\n\n- Amazon.com, Inc. (2003). *Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2002*. U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000095014903000355/v87419ore10vk.htm\n- Bank for International Settlements. (2026). *Annual economic report June 2026*. https://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2026e.htm\n- Legal.io. (2025, August 23). *MIT report finds 95% of AI pilots fail to deliver ROI, exposing \"GenAI Divide\"*. Retrieved 26 August 2026, from https://www.legal.io/blog/5719519/MIT-Report-Finds-95-of-AI-Pilots-Fail-to-Deliver-ROI-Exposing-GenAI-Divide\n- Lichtenberg, N. (2026, February 25). Moody's flags $662 billion risk at the heart of the data center build-out by just 5 companies. *Fortune*, via Yahoo Finance. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/moody-flags-662-billion-risk-081000616.html\n- Lichtenberg, N. (2026, June 29). The central bank of central banks just released its flagship annual report — and it sees a $1 trillion AI investment boom headed for a reckoning. *Fortune*. https://fortune.com/2026/06/29/bis-central-bank-warning-hyperscaler-data-center-1-trillion-gamble-recession/\n- MarTech. (2025). *Gartner: 40% of agentic AI projects will fail, making humans indispensable*. Retrieved 26 August 2026, from https://martech.org/gartner-40-of-agentic-ai-projects-will-fail-making-humans-indispensable/\n- Shortform. (n.d.). *Amazon in 2001: How Jeff Bezos rose above bad share prices*. Retrieved 26 August 2026, from https://www.shortform.com/blog/amazon-2001/\n- Wilkinson, L. (2025, March 14). AI project failure rates are on the rise: Report. *CIO Dive*. Retrieved 26 August 2026, from https://www.ciodive.com/news/AI-project-fail-data-SPGlobal/742590/"
  }
}