{ "$schema": "https://peakstate.global/sourced/v1.schema.json", "sourced": "1.0", "artefact": { "path": "src/content/posts/honest-read-rollouts.md", "sha256": "9c65539474ef24eb44407c36d219f64b21e58f653bf544bc6324b435f6cdfd43", "producedAt": "2026-08-26" }, "claims": [ { "id": "c1", "statement": "BCG research found 70% of digital transformations fall short of their objectives.", "status": "sourced", "locator": { "section": "What the failure numbers say, and what they don't" }, "evidence": [ "e1" ] }, { "id": "c2", "statement": "In BCG's breakdown, 30% met or exceeded target value with sustainable change, 44% created some value but missed targets, and 26% created limited value with no sustainable change.", "status": "sourced", "locator": { "section": "What the failure numbers say, and what they don't" }, "evidence": [ "e1" ] }, { "id": "c3", "statement": "BCG sells transformation services, so the firm reporting the failure rate also sells the remedy.", "status": "inferred", "locator": { "section": "What the failure numbers say, and what they don't" }, "evidence": [ "e1" ] }, { "id": "c4", "statement": "S&P Global Market Intelligence surveyed more than 1,000 respondents in North America and Europe and found 42% of companies abandoned most of their AI initiatives in 2025, up from 17% the prior year.", "status": "sourced", "locator": { "section": "What the failure numbers say, and what they don't" }, "evidence": [ "e2" ], "distanceFromPrimary": "cited in CIO Dive's report of the S&P Global research; the S&P report itself was not retrieved" }, { "id": "c5", "statement": "The average organisation scrapped 46% of its AI proofs of concept before they reached production.", "status": "sourced", "locator": { "section": "What the failure numbers say, and what they don't" }, "evidence": [ "e2" ], "distanceFromPrimary": "cited in CIO Dive's report of the S&P Global research" }, { "id": "c6", "statement": "McKinsey's 2018 survey found only 16% of transformations both improved performance and sustained the improvement.", "status": "sourced", "locator": { "section": "removed from the published article" }, "evidence": [ "e3" ], "note": "Present in the previous version of this article. McKinsey.com refused retrieval (curl exit 92) on two attempts on 26 August 2026, so the figure could not be re-checked and was cut from the article. Recorded here as recalled, not sourced." }, { "id": "c7", "statement": "The AI rollout playbook repeats the same five beats as earlier Agile and digital transformation programmes: buy tools first, run volunteer pilots, publish an adoption dashboard, stand up a champions network, book benefits into next year's plan.", "status": "inferred", "locator": { "section": "The technology is new. The plan is not." }, "evidence": [] }, { "id": "c8", "statement": "Every rollout runs three stories at once — procurement, usage, and the redesign of the actual work — and only the third pays for the programme.", "status": "inferred", "locator": { "section": "Every rollout runs three stories at once" }, "evidence": [] }, { "id": "c9", "statement": "Usage metrics are a systematically misleading proxy for value, because volume of light use outweighs a single deep workflow rebuild in the dashboard.", "status": "inferred", "locator": { "section": "Every rollout runs three stories at once" }, "evidence": [] }, { "id": "c10", "statement": "Freed-up time that nobody redirects dissolves without leaving a trace in any metric.", "status": "inferred", "locator": { "section": "Your last transformation already paid for the answers" }, "evidence": [] }, { "id": "c11", "statement": "Middle management is the layer that converts intent into changed work, and it is the layer transformation rollouts typically bypass.", "status": "inferred", "locator": { "section": "Your last transformation already paid for the answers" }, "evidence": [] }, { "id": "c12", "statement": "Whether a plan names a specific end-to-end workflow, an owner and a date is the strongest of the five signals.", "status": "inferred", "locator": { "section": "Five questions to ask before you fund the deck" }, "evidence": [] }, { "id": "c13", "statement": "Pilots staffed by volunteers measure enthusiasm rather than adoption potential, because tool access was never the constraint.", "status": "inferred", "locator": { "section": "Five questions to ask before you fund the deck" }, "evidence": [] }, { "id": "c14", "statement": "Transformation programmes in the author's experience fade rather than end, and no closing report is written.", "status": "inferred", "locator": { "section": "opening" }, "evidence": [], "note": "Andrew's own observation from practice, first-person." } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "e1", "url": "https://www.bcg.com/publications/2020/increasing-odds-of-success-in-digital-transformation", "quote": "New BCG research shows that 70% of digital transformations fall short of their objectives, often with profound consequences.", "supportingQuote": "Only 30% of transformations met or exceeded their target value and resulted in sustainable change; companies in this group are in the win zone. Some 44% created some value but did not meet their targets and resulted in only limited long-term change; these companies are in the worry zone. And in the woe zone, 26% created limited value (less than 50% of the target), producing no sustainable change.", "locator": "Flipping the Odds of Digital Transformation Success (2020), opening paragraph and the win/worry/woe zone passage", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-26", "sha256": "418d1176225b9e5d760586666d2039ecf64c645c1e602fe5fc87e8769d9bf64f", "textSha256": "4e9787cc69b2b39cedd605a993a2492781f389fab8995961402b6d6905e1873f", "proseWords": 6195, "thin": false, "originGroup": "bcg-2020-flipping-the-odds", "custodian": "self", "snapshot": "docs/research/sources/honest-read-rollouts/2026-08-26/bcg-com-publications-2020-increasing-odds-of-success-in-digital-transformation.txt" }, { "id": "e2", "url": "https://www.ciodive.com/news/AI-project-fail-data-SPGlobal/742590/", "quote": "The share of companies abandoning most of their AI initiatives jumped to 42% , up from 17% last year. The average organization scrapped 46% of AI proof-of-concepts before they reached production.", "supportingQuote": "More enterprises reported AI project failures this year compared to 2024, according to analysis from S&P Global Market Intelligence . The findings are based on a survey of more than 1,000 respondents in North America and Europe.", "locator": "CIO Dive, 14 March 2025, Dive Brief bullets one and two", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-26", "sha256": "0101a1f8d8b6a395bfa8c22368cb366a97d9d897892e4aa56dc6a1a052917c17", "textSha256": "89779edf884e5e0f6b0357b66441777236b7302d4e19dab92e06fb0119270c5f", "proseWords": 643, "thin": false, "originGroup": "sp-global-2025-ai-abandonment-survey", "custodian": "self", "distanceFromPrimary": "secondary; the S&P Global Market Intelligence report was not retrieved", "snapshot": "docs/research/sources/honest-read-rollouts/2026-08-26/ciodive-com-news-ai-project-fail-data-spglobal-742590.txt" }, { "id": "e3", "url": "https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/people-and-organizational-performance/our-insights/unlocking-success-in-digital-transformations", "quote": "Only 16 percent of respondents say their organizations’ digital transformations have successfully improved performance and also equipped them to sustain changes in the long term.", "locator": "body", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-27", "sha256": "0ffa8aa60e761a501edfed1a4b3055d544a9ed006594040d0e122885ab42d4d6", "textSha256": "701f7ee938ce5a90f34eca8ad7c8313739f991506fe6b0760c130f0c736f9ccf", "proseWords": 3598, "thin": false, "originGroup": "mckinsey-2018-dt", "custodian": "self (browser save supplied by Andrew Ramsden, 2026-08-27)", "snapshot": "docs/research/sources/honest-read-rollouts/2026-08-27/mckinsey-unlocking-success-in-digital-transformations.html" } ], "notRetrieved": [ { "url": "https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/people-and-organizational-performance/our-insights/unlocking-success-in-digital-transformations", "attemptedAt": "2026-08-26", "reason": "curl exit 92 (HTTP/2 protocol error) on two attempts; site refuses non-browser clients", "consequence": "the 16% figure was cut from the article and is recorded as claim c6, status recalled" } ], "disclosure": { "attribution": "Written by Andrew Ramsden. AI tools assisted research and drafting; all outputs verified.", "accountable": "Andrew Ramsden.", "limitations": "BCG's and McKinsey's figures are self-reported by executives in the firms' own surveys, and both firms sell transformation services. The S&P Global figures are quoted via CIO Dive; the underlying report is paywalled.", "references": "Three sources, retrieved and hashed on 26 and 27 August 2026, each figure quoted with a locator in the [SOURCED sidecar](/sourced/honest-read-rollouts.sourced.json).\n\n- Boston Consulting Group. (2020). *Flipping the odds of digital transformation success*. Retrieved 26 August 2026, from https://www.bcg.com/publications/2020/increasing-odds-of-success-in-digital-transformation\n- McKinsey & Company. (2018, October 29). *Unlocking success in digital transformations*. https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/people-and-organizational-performance/our-insights/unlocking-success-in-digital-transformations\n- Wilkinson, L. (2025, March 14). AI project failure rates are on the rise: Report. *CIO Dive*. Retrieved 26 August 2026, from https://www.ciodive.com/news/AI-project-fail-data-SPGlobal/742590/" } }